Rework problem 11 from section 3.4 of your text,involving th
Rework problem 11 from section 3.4 of your text,involving the flipping of either a fair or weighted coin.Assume that the weighted coin yields a heads with probability 0.2.
You select one of the two coins at random,and flip it 2 times,noting heads or tails with each flip.
What is the probability that the weighted coin was selected,given that all 2 flips turned up heads?
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You select one of the two coins at random,and flip it 2 times,noting heads or tails with each flip.
What is the probability that the weighted coin was selected,given that all 2 flips turned up heads?
100分的悬赏 如果能够解答的话 还可以再加的
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需要用bayesian概率公式
所以只需要算出两次都是头的抽出的是weighted coin除以两次都是头的概率总和
1.选择的是even
概率为
(1/2)
两次都是头的概率(1/2)^2
所以抽出even,两次都是head的概率是(1/2)^3=1/8
2.
选择的是weighted
概率为
(1/2)
两次都是头的概率(0.2)^2
所以抽出even,两次都是head的概率是(1/2)*0.2^2=0.02
所以the probability that the weighted coin was selected,given that all 2 flips turned up heads
is 0.02/(1/8+0.02)=0.1379
所以只需要算出两次都是头的抽出的是weighted coin除以两次都是头的概率总和
1.选择的是even
概率为
(1/2)
两次都是头的概率(1/2)^2
所以抽出even,两次都是head的概率是(1/2)^3=1/8
2.
选择的是weighted
概率为
(1/2)
两次都是头的概率(0.2)^2
所以抽出even,两次都是head的概率是(1/2)*0.2^2=0.02
所以the probability that the weighted coin was selected,given that all 2 flips turned up heads
is 0.02/(1/8+0.02)=0.1379
1年前
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